The simple reality is you can’t resolve a crisis when only one side is willing to do what is necessary to avoid a confrontation. Every day since we left Geneva -- every day, even up to today, when Russia sent armored battalions right up the Luhansk Oblast border -- the world has witnessed a tale of two countries, two countries with vastly different understandings of what it means to uphold an international agreement.
One
week later, it is clear that only one side, one country, is keeping its
word. And for anyone who wants to create gray areas out of
black, or find in the fine print crude ways to justify crude actions,
let’s get real -- the Geneva agreement is not open to
interpretation. It is not vague. It is not
subjective. It is not optional. What we agreed to
in Geneva is as simple as it is specific.
We
agreed that all sides would refrain from violence, intimidation, and
taking provocative actions. We agreed that illegal groups
would lay down their arms and that, in exchange for amnesty, they would
hand over the public buildings and spaces that they occupied.
We agreed that to implement these objectives – and this is important,
to implement this -- monitors from the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe would have unfettered access to parts of Ukraine
where they were needed most. And we agreed that all parties
would work to create that access and to provide help to the OSCE in
order to do this. We agreed that the OSCE would report from
the ground whether the rights, security, and dignity of Ukrainian
citizens was being protected.
From
day one, the Government of Ukraine started making good on its
commitments -- from day one. From day one, Prime Minister
Yatsenyuk has kept his word. He immediately agreed to help
vacate buildings. He suspended Ukraine’s counterterrorism
initiative over Easter, choosing de-escalation, despite Ukraine’s
legitimate, fundamental right to defend its own territory and its own
people. From day one, the Ukrainian Government sent senior
officials to work with the OSCE, in keeping with the agreement, to send
them to work in regions where Russia had voiced its most urgent
concerns about the security of Russian speakers and ethnic
Russians. And on day one, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk went on
live television and committed his government publicly to all of the
people of Ukraine that -- and these are his words -- committed them to
undertake comprehensive constitutional reform that will strengthen the
powers of the regions. He directly addressed the concerns
expressed by the Russians, and he did so on day one.
He
also made a personal appeal to Russian-speaking Ukrainians, pledging to
support -- and again, these are his words -- a special status to the
Russian language and the protection of the language. And in
keeping with his Geneva commitments, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk has
publicly announced amnesty legislation -- once more, in his words --
for all those who surrender arms, come out of the premises and will
begin with the Ukrainian people to build a sovereign and independent
Ukraine. That is a promise made by the interim government to
the people of Ukraine.
The
world has rightly judged that Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and the
Government of Ukraine are working in good faith. And the
world, sadly, has rightly judged that Russia has put its faith in
distraction, deception, and destabilization. For seven days,
Russia has refused to take a single concrete step in the right
direction. Not a single Russian official, not one, has
publicly gone on television in Ukraine and called on the separatists to
support the Geneva agreement, to support the stand-down, to give up
their weapons, and get out of the Ukrainian buildings. They
have not called on them to engage in that activity.
In
fact, the propaganda bullhorn that is the state-sponsored Russia Today
program, has been deployed to promote -- actually, Russia Today network
-- has deployed to promote President Putin’s fantasy about what is
playing out on the ground. They almost spend full time
devoted to this effort to propagandize and to distort what is happening
or not happening in Ukraine. Instead, in plain sight, Russia
continues to fund, coordinate, and fuel a heavily armed separatist
movement in Donetsk.
Meanwhile,
Russian leaders are making increasingly outrageous claims to justify
their action -- that the CIA invented the internet in order to control
the world or that the forces occupying buildings, armed to the teeth,
wearing brand new matching uniforms and moving in disciplined military
formation, are merely local activists seeking to exercise their
legitimate rights. That is absurd, and there is no other word
to describe it.
But
in the 21st century, where every citizen can
broadcast messages, images, and video from the palm of their hand, no
amount of propaganda is capable of hiding such actions. No
amount of propaganda will hide the truth, and the truth is there in the
social media and across the pages of newspapers and in the video of
televisions for all of the world to see. No amount of
propaganda can withstand that kind of scrutiny today.
The
world knows that peaceful protesters don’t come armed with grenade
launchers and automatic weapons, the latest issue from the Russian
arsenal, hiding the insignias on their brand new matching military
uniforms, and speaking in dialects that every local knows comes from
thousands of miles away. The world knows that the Russian
intelligence operatives arrested in Ukraine didn’t just take a wrong
turn on the highway. In fact, we have seen soldiers wearing
uniforms identical to the ones Russian soldiers wore in Crimea last
month.
As
international observers on the ground have borne witness, prior to
Russia’s escalation, there was no violence. There was no
broad-scale assault on the rights of people in the east.
Ukraine was largely stable and peaceful, including in the south and the
east. Even as we were preparing to meet in Geneva, we know
that the Russian intelligence services were involved in organizing
local pro-Russian militias. And during the week leading up to
the Geneva meetings, separatists seized at least 29
buildings. This is one more example of how Russia is stoking
the very instability that they say they want to quell.
And
in the weeks since this agreement, we have seen even more violence
visited upon Ukrainians. Right after we left Geneva,
separatists seized TV and radio stations that broadcast in the
Ukrainian language. The mayor of Slovyansk was kidnapped the
very day after the parties committed to end the violence and
intimidations. Two days ago, one journalist was kidnapped and
another went missing, bringing the total number of kidnapped
journalists into the double digits. That same day, two dead
bodies were found near Slovyansk. One of them was a city
councilmember who had been knocked unconscious and thrown in a river
with a weighted backpack strapped to him.
Having
failed to postpone Ukraine’s elections, having failed to halt a
legitimate political process, Russia has instead chosen an illegitimate
course of armed violence to try and achieve with the barrel of a gun
and the force of a mob what couldn’t be achieved any other
way. They’ve tried to create enough chaos in the east to
delay or delegitimize the elections, or to force Ukraine to accept a
federalism that gives Russia control over its domestic and foreign
policies, or even force Ukraine to overreact and create an excuse for
military intervention. This is a full-throated effort to
actively sabotage the democratic process through gross external
intimidation that has brought inside Ukraine, and it is worse
even.
We
have seen this movie before. We saw it most recently in
Crimea, where similar subterfuge and sabotage by Russia was followed by
a full invasion -- an invasion, by the way, for which President Putin
recently decorated Russian special forces at the Kremlin.
Now
Russia claims that all of this is exaggerated, or even orchestrated,
that Ukrainians can’t possibly be calling for a government free of
corruption and coercion. Russia is actually mystified to see
Ukraine’s neighbors and likeminded free people all over the world
united with Ukrainians who want to build a better life and choose their
leaders for themselves, by themselves.
Nobody
should doubt Russia’s hand in this. As NATO’s Supreme Allied
Commander in Europe wrote this week, “What is happening in eastern
Ukraine is a military operation that is well planned and organized and
we assess that it is being carried out at the direction of
Russia.” Our intelligence community tells me that Russia’s
intelligence and military intelligence services and special operators
are playing an active role in destabilizing eastern Ukraine with
personnel, weapons, money, operational planning, and
coordination. The Ukrainians have intercepted and publicized
command-and-control conversations from known Russian agents with their
separatist clients in Ukraine. Some of the individual special
operations personnel, who were active on Russia’s behalf in Chechnya,
Georgia, and Crimea have been photographed in Slovyansk, Donetsk, and
Luhansk. Some are even bragging about it by themselves on
their Russian social media sites. And we’ve seen weapons and
gear on the separatists that matches those worn and used by Russian
special forces.
So following today’s threatening movement of Russian troops right up to
Ukraine’s border, let me be clear: If Russia continues in
this direction, it will not just be a grave mistake, it will be an
expensive mistake. Already the international response to the
choices made by Russia’s leaders is taking its toll on Russia’s
economy. Prime Minister Medvedev has alluded to the cost
Russia is already paying. Even President Putin has
acknowledged it.
As
investors’ confidence dwindles, some $70 billion in capital has fled
the Russian financial system in the first quarter of 2014, more than
all of last year. Growth estimates for 2014 have been revised
downward by two to three percentage points. And this follows
a year in which GDP growth was already the lowest since 2009.
Meanwhile, the Russian Central Bank has had to spend more than $20
billion to defend the ruble, eroding Russia’s buffers against external
shocks. Make no mistake that what I’ve just described is
really just a snapshot and is also, regrettably, a preview of how the
free world will respond if Russia continues to escalate what they had
promised to de-escalate.
Seven days, two opposite responses, and one truth that cannot be ignored: The world will remain united for Ukraine. So I will say it again. The window to change course is closing. President Putin and Russia face a choice. If Russia chooses the path of de-escalation, the international community --all of us -- will welcome it. If Russia does not, the world will make sure that the cost for Russia will only grow. And as President Obama reiterated earlier today, we are ready to act.