Address:
Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment
Pinawa, Manitoba
R0E 1L0

Preface, January 2006

1. Present Status
2. Future Options
3. Export of Primary Products
4. Export of Secondary Manufactured Products
4(a) Goods for Mass Markets ...
4(b) Goods for Specialized Markets ...
5. Past and Future Economic Realities
6. An Optimum Canadian Economy
7. Potential Benefits of a Thermonuclear Fusion Programme

AN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY TOWARDS AN "OPTIMUM" CANADIAN ECONOMY

1. Present Status

Canada is one of the more fortunate nations in the world today. It is blessed with an abundance of natural resources, it is considered to be highly (or, at least, quasi) industrialized and the environmental damage from its industries is as yet localized and not as pervasive as in the United States and Europe. A large fraction of the people are relatively well educated and its work force is highly skilled. In comparison with the world average, the majority of Canadians enjoy a high standard of living and a high degree of political, economic and social freedom.

When we exam the basis of our economic well-being it becomes readily apparent that it is in large measure due to the export of primary products associated with the agricultural, mining and lumber industries. More recently in the case of Ontario, the U.S. - Canada Automotive Agreement has been a boon to its economy as shown in Appendix B. However, in examining the economies of the other provinces, the importance of the export of end products to foreign countries is minor.

2. Future Options

For the future, Canada is faced with the general choice of increasing its reliance on export markets or becoming more self-sufficient and relying on its domestic market. There appears to be a surprising degree of agreement among Canadians that we could not maintain our standard of living without interaction with the world at large and should therefore develop our export trade to the maximum degree. Since I am in general agreement with this consensus, I shall not belabor this point except to point out that there are dangers involved with over-reliance on exports.

World trade patterns can shift very quickly in response to changes in political, economic or technological realities. In my opinion, Canada should be sufficiently self-reliant to ensure that a complete breakdown of the world order would not endanger its survival as a people or as a nation. Although the general Canadian consensus supports an export strategy, there is no consensus as to the type of export trade Canada should develop and how the various regions of Canada could participate in this export strategy. Should Canada continue to rely mainly on the export of primary products? Or should Canada emphasize the export of secondary manufactured products? If the latter, then what should these secondary manufactured products be and where should they be produced? Let us examine these questions in more detail.

3. Exports of Primary Products

Let us classify exportable primary products as renewable or depletable according to whether the natural resource from which it arises is renewable or depletable. For example, fish, wheat, feed grains, vegetable oils, lumber, pulp and paper are classified as renewable while refined metals or concentrates, potash, coal, oil and natural gas are termed depletable. In a logical accounting system, these two types of primary products must be treated differently. Renewable primary products calculated as an integral over time are deemed to be infinite although the annual supply is limited by the rate of reproduction of the renewable resource. Exports of renewable primary products are entered only as credits in the accounting ledger since the renewable resource is perishable and if it is not harvested within a given period of time it is lost.

In considering depletable resources, on the other hand, one must balance the present value of the resource against its potential value at some future time. A high grade ore body of cesium, for example, depleted and exported by 1980 will not be available to Canada in the year 2000 at which time technological developments are likely to have made this element useful to our needs. If it were necessary for Canada to purchase cesium at that time and if the price of cesium at that time is substantially higher than at present, the credit side of the accounting ledger will be more than offset by the debit entry.

Only if a depletable resource is deemed to be infinite in supply and its cost of recovery constant in time would the debit entry be zero. For the purposes of modern society, infinite supply could be defined to be a supply in excess of the integral of present and projected Canadian demand over a period of 200 years. (We choose 200 years as the time scale over which society should be planning its future). It is unlikely that the cost of recovery would remain constant in time, since the high grade deposits are always mined first. In this case the figure which should be entered on the debit side of the accounting ledger is the cost of replacement (i.e. the difference in the cost of recovery from the high grade and low grade deposits) of the exported commodity.

One must not conclude that this exotic accounting method for depletable resources will always favor the postponement of development of a given mineral deposit. Indeed, in certain cases a mineral deposit can be classified as perishable in that it may decrease in value or become worthless at some future date. Some people may argue, for example, that the Athabaska Tar Sands of Alberta fit this classification.

It is perhaps unfortunate that this accounting method is based upon projected supply, demand and cost such that disagreement on these projected values are certain to occur. On the other hand, there is great value in encouraging Canadian society to undertake long-term planning and projection of future conditions.

There is one more lesson to be learned from debit accounting of depletable resources and that is that income from depletable resources should not be treated in the same manner as income from renewable resources or secondary manufactured products. Only that portion in excess of the depletion cost can be classified as general revenue. The rest must be considered as investment capital to be invested (preferably) in developing secondary manufacturing industries based on the primary resource being depleted. It is obvious that on this basis the rosy income picture usually presented, as a justification of Canadian export policies of depletable resources would become somewhat tarnished. I would further suggest that the "investment capital" arising from such exports has been very poorly invested -- being "squandered" to provide a short term sense of material well-being rather than "invested" in creating long term employment opportunities.

In concluding this subsection, I should perhaps explain my deep seated aversion to the Canadian high standard of living being maintained by exports of depletable resources. Even if it could be proven that Canadians could enjoy a high standard of material well-being for the next 200 years simply by exporting large quantities of raw materials and importing lesser quantities of manufactured goods, I would be opposed to Canadian society adopting this course. A society based on such an economy could be expected to become stagnant very quickly, would likely develop internal dissension over the equitable distribution of the spoils and would be extremely susceptible to foreign pressures. Canada would be quickly by-passed by the other countries of the world and become a backward nation. History shows that societies which fail to adapt to changing conditions and keep up with the latest technological advances are doomed to oblivion.

4. Exports of Secondary Manufactured Products

It is interesting to notice the way economic philosophies have changed in the last 20 years. Every nation appears to have jumped on the Japanese bandwagon of mass production and world export of consumer goods. Every government is frantically trying to increase its nation's exports of manufactured products and to decrease its imports so as to protect its homegrown industries. Despite lip service paid to the GATT Agreement to reduce tariffs, imports are effectively discouraged by non-tariff trade barriers. Citizens are exhorted to produce more and consume less foreign-made products.

Where all else fails, there is always devaluation. Within a scant 10 years, politicians have managed to transform this bit of sleight of mind from a shame to be avoided at all cost for fear of one's political life, into a barbiturate guaranteed to cure any conceivable ill. Governments vie with each other in devaluing their currencies in the hope of obtaining an export advantage. And the worker has been conditioned to applaud such action because, although he must pay more for his imported food and consumer goods, he can now work longer to produce more to sell for less to some sucker in another country.

Canadian industry has been participating in this rat race only half-heartedly so far, despite the vigorous encouragement of the Federal Government. The problem is that there aren't too many manufactured products produced in Canada which are competitive on the world market.

Let us arbitrarily categorize exportable end products according to the type of market (mass or specialized), method of production (automated, labor intensive or specialized) and technology required (standard or sophisticated). Products for the mass market are usually termed consumer products; whereas products for the specialized market are often industrial products (used by industries to produce consumer and other products) but could also be consumer products intended for the rich, particular or aesthetically inclined consumer. Articles for the mass market can be produced by automated techniques, by large numbers of manual laborers or by a combination of these. Our concept of specialized production differs from mass production in that it is meant for a specialized market, often requires sophisticated technology and is usually labor intensive.

For example, automobiles are destined for the mass market, are produced by mass automated means and require well-developed standard technologies. Space craft are produced for a specialized market and by specialized means using ultra-modern sophisticated technologies.

4(a) Goods for Mass Markets Produced by Manual Labor or Automated Standard Technologies

The clothing industry is a good example of a product destined for the mass market and employing a rather large labor force. It is well known that because of the relatively high cost of labor in Canada, the Canadian clothing industry cannot compete successfully against such countries as Taiwan, which benefit from lower labor costs. The only areas where Canadian clothing manufacturers can compete successfully are in specialty and expensive high quality products destined for limited market and fad or fashion products to which foreign manufacturers cannot respond quickly enough before the whims of the consumer change.

Most Canadians would agree that a successful Canadian industrial strategy could not be based on labor intensive products destined for mass markets.

Let us now consider the automobile as an example of a product destined for the mass market and using an automated standard technology. The Canadian automobile industry based in Ontario and with access to the U.S. market (thanks to the Automobile Agreement with the United States) does indeed provide employment for many Canadians both directly and indirectly. It is a very important asset to the economy of Ontario. However, in examining the competitiveness of the industry, we find that automobiles in Canada are approximately ten percent more expensive than in the United States and up to 50% more expensive than European or Japanese produced automobiles of comparable quality. The Canadian automobile industry is certainly not competitive in world markets.

Except in cases where the availability of primary products provides a definite competitive edge, this conclusion is valid for virtually every Canadian industry which produces goods for the mass market. Of course, this is to be expected since the cost of labor is often still a significant fraction of the cost of the product despite the use of extensive automation.

We must therefore conclude that Canada cannot base its overall "industrial strategy" on goods manufactured by means of manual labor or standard automated technologies for the mass market. On the other hand, the underdeveloped nations of the world could and perhaps should base their industrial strategies upon this category of products provided they had access to the markets of the industrialized nations. We shall discuss this point in more detail later.

4(b) Goods for Special Markets Using Specialized Methods of Production and Sophisticated Technologies

Rather than attempt to provide a definitive classification, we shall list three types of products which fit in this category as examples.

(i) Yachts and sailing boats are recreational items destined for well-to-do individuals, require experienced craftsmanship (rather than a standard technology) on the part of the builders and are labor intensive. Most articles whose main value is aesthetic rather than utilitarian could be placed in this sub-category. Conversely the products of artists, sculptors, craftsmen will usually fall in this sub-category.

(ii) Mine and oil exploration equipment and aircraft simulators are destined for corporations (investor or government owned exploration companies and air carriers) and since they must be designed for specific conditions, require flexible and modern technology.

(iii) A very important sub-category for the future are joint ventures with foreign governments and/or multi-national corporations. This would involve such areas as nuclear reactor development and aircraft component manufacturing.

The main difference of this "specialized" category from the "mass market" category is the flexibility in the design of the product and the method of manufacture. To compete in this category an industry must be ready and able to call upon the latest technologies and participate in the extension of these technologies through research and development. It is obvious that an industry producing this category of goods must be located in a highly industrialized country which has a well developed technological base. Canada is, or at least, has the potential of becoming just such a country.

5. Past and Future Economic Realities

In examining the trade relations between the developed industrialized nations and the poor under-developed nations of the world, the outstanding reality of the past century is that the rich nations have generally benefited more from such relations than the under-developed nations. The poor nations complain that they are being exploited by greedy capitalists whereas the industrialized nations complain that they must pay exorbitant prices for the raw materials they purchase and that the hundreds of millions which they spend on foreign aid is not appreciated. Irregardless of the truth or falsehood of such charges, the incontrovertible fact is that the gap in the standard of living between the rich and the poor nations has been steadily widening.

Obviously, the half-hearted attempts to ameliorate the economic inequities in the world have, in general, failed. Resource exploitation for export (irregardless of the price of the commodity) is extremely unlikely to result in the development of the broad industrial base required for an economy to be capable of sustained growth. Rather than waste words on useless recriminations, let us search for a solution to this problem. A possible solution was suggested earlier; the underdeveloped nations should be encouraged to mass produce consumer goods for export to the industrialized nations. For example, if North America would guarantee to purchase a minimum of twenty million automobiles at prices comparable to our models of similar quality over a period of twenty years from a country such as Venezuela (assuming it has ample iron ore deposits), it is extremely likely that at the end of this time that country would have developed a self-sustaining steel industry and supporting infrastructure. In return, North Americans would sell such items as sophisticated telecommunication systems and nuclear reactors. Such an economic relationship would be of benefit to all concerned, the under-developed nations would develop an industrial base and the industrialized nations would be able to concentrate on sophisticated technological products.

Although implementation of such a scheme would be relatively straightforward, one could expect a great deal of opposition from the people who would benefit the most -- the workers of North America. Such a scheme would doubtless be criticized as a sellout of jobs to foreigners.

This brings us to our first outstanding future reality: a large fraction of present manual jobs are and will be increasingly redundant and could be more efficiently performed by machines. A Toronto sociologist recently estimated that if automation were fully utilized, two percent of the North American work force could produce the same quantity of goods that now requires thirty-eight percent of the work force. It is ironic that unions insist upon job protection against automation during contract negotiations although such automation helps provide the affluence and leisure time, which the worker supposedly desires. This is readily understandable -- loss of employment almost invariably results in loss of buying power. There is little consolation in having a machine manufacture an article which you can't afford to buy. This illustrates a basic problem in our society: the inability of the economy to produce jobs smoothly and immediately as they are required which, of course, results in the worker being apprehensive about losing his job. Proponents of a guaranteed annual income will claim that implementation of such a scheme will result in a reduction of such apprehension and will thus lead to greater mobility in the work force.

The second future economic reality which we will discuss is the finiteness of resources available on the planet earth. North Americans are presently using more than their share of the energy and material resources which could be fairly allotted to them on a worldwide basis. If the entire world consumed resources at the North American rate, there would be severe shortages of key raw materials within several decades. In addition, various environmentalists estimate that the resulting pollution would result in catastrophic and irreversible damage to the ecology and environment of this planet within two decades.

The message is clear. The North American (and world) economies must be made compatible with the resource, ecological and environmental capabilities of this planet. This suggests a reversal of the "planned obsolescence" syndrome, complete recycling of wastes, conservation of fuel and other depletable resources, extensive anti-pollution measures, etc.

6. An Optimum Canadian Economy

Thus far in this text, we (1) have demonstrated (or, at least, hypothesized) the necessity of Canada maintaining and further developing its international trade relations, (2) have defined a "proper" accounting system upon which the desirability of exports and renewable and depletable primary resources may be judged, (3) have outlined the types of end products with which (in our opinion) Canada could and could not compete successfully in world markets and (4) have defined two future realities with which Canada's "optimum" economy must be made compatible.

As we envision it, this "optimum" economy would differ from our present economy in two important respects which we will treat in some detail.

First of all, there would be a greater degree of processing of primary products before they are exported from Canada (see the quantities inedible crude materials and fabricated materials in Appendix B). As indicated in Appendix D and E, metals are one area where more processing in Canada appears to be possible. Petrochemicals and forest products are other areas which come to mind. A modest increase in such upgrading of raw materials can have a substantial effect upon the economy. Economists estimate that for every worker employed in a "basic" industry, there are 5 or 6 jobs created in secondary and tertiary industries. Let us use Canada's 1972 international trade as an example (see table below).

Let us suppose that Canada's 1972 exports of crude materials were reduced from $3.5B to $2.5B (where B = Billion) and from this $1.0B of crude materials Canada produced $4.0B of fabricated materials. Of this quantity, $2.0B is exported and the other $2.0B is used to reduce our imports of fabricated materials by $1.0B. The excess of $1.0B of fabricated materials are further upgraded in Canada to produce $4.0B of end products, $2.0B of which are exported and $2.0B are consumed in Canada. The net result of decreasing our exports of crude materials by $1.0B is to increase exports of fabricated materials by $2.0B and of end products by $2.0B, to decrease imports of fabricated materials by $1.0B and to increase imports of end products by $4.0B (to balance imports with exports). There is an additional $2.0B of internally generated end products such that the total increase in the material well-being of Canadians is $6.0B or about $300 per capita.

From the point of view of job creation, the production and distribution of $4.0B of fabricated materials can be expected to employ 4*10⁵ man years of labor (at $10,000 per year) and a similar amount for the production and distribution of $4.0B of end products. The net result is to employ 800,000 Canadians -- of the same order as the number of unemployed people in Canada who are receiving of the order of $2.0B per year in unemployment insurance benefits.

This example is, of course, grossly oversimplified, but it does illustrate the "multiplier" effect that progressive upgrading of raw materials has on the economy. There are two reasons why it is likely that the Canadian economy will move in this direction during the next decade. Nations exporting raw materials will increasingly insist that such exports be tied to the manufacture and export of end products from that nation. Secondly, the upgrading of crude materials into fabricated materials often requires large amounts of energy. Canada is in a relatively better position in this regard than most other industrialized nations.

The federal and provincial governments, of course, favor further processing of crude materials in Canada; however, their past and recent policies have not been and are unlikely to be successful in this regard. Their policies appear to be designed to increase the price of raw materials and to increase the return to their treasuries rather than encourage further processing. The various resource industries can quite rightfully claim that the scramble of the various governmental institutions for "excess" profits has reached the point of economic absurdity. The net result could quite easily be to undermine the health of that sector of the economy which has been most responsible for the high standard of material well being Canadians have enjoyed. We must emphasize that the resource based industries are vital to the Canadian economy and will continue to be of dominant importance for a least the next decade.

Although the upgrading of crude materials into fabricated materials can be expected to provide an interim boost to the Canadian economy for a decade or so, the major long term benefits shall accrue from the development of an "end products" sector of the economy along the lines outlined in section 4. We have previously outlined the categories in which we feel Canada could successfully compete in world markets: (1) items where the availability of primary resources results in a definite competitive edge, (2) high quality, individual and/or aesthetic items and (3) highly sophisticated products based on ultra-modern technologies (perhaps on supra-national as well as national scales).

Of these three categories, the last appears as the most attractive since it would ensure that Canada would actively participate in the technological evolution of the future and be in an optimum position to adapt to changing conditions. It is our considered opinion that a Canadian "industrial strategy" could and should be designed to encourage the Canadian economy to evolve toward the highly technological orientation outlined above. Such as strategy could perhaps result in highly technological products being of dominant importance in the Canada economy within 25 years. As pointed out previously, in order to compete successfully in this category, Canadian industry must have the latest technologies at its fingertips. Thus it is absolutely essential that Canada develop a comprehensive research and development base in the "appropriate" technologies.

The problem is then to identify the "appropriate" technologies, which will be important in the future. This, of course, cannot be done with absolute certainty since no one knows the scientific breakthroughs which will occur and how these will affect the economic realities of the future. However, one can often make a reasonable guess based on extrapolation of present knowledge. For example, laser and nuclear reactor technologies are in the infancy of their development and are certain to become increasingly important in the future. Similarly, one can envision oceanography becoming important if severe world food and resource shortages develop and it becomes feasible to harvest food and other resources from the oceans.

Unfortunately, it is often difficult to justify the costs of working in a technology which has no apparent immediate economic returns. Furthermore, it is difficult to motivate scientists and engineers to work in a field which has no apparent "goals". Such "goals" are most easily supplied by pure or quasi-applied (directed toward a specific process or product for which economic or political justification cannot be made directly) research programs. Most scientific and technological breakthroughs are a result of such research programs. Thus a dynamic scientific R & D program is vital in any technologically oriented economy. Although the pure and quasi-applied portion of a scientific program would normally cost only a nominal fraction of applied R & D costs, it acts as a germination centre for new ideas and new technologies and as a training centre of personnel for the applied R & D program.

There are a large number of scientific areas in which pure and quasi-applied research can be pursued; however, Canada should choose those areas which are most likely to provide technological benefits and spin-offs with a potential for large economic returns. One such area (in which I admit a vested interest since my educational background is in plasma physics) which promises to provide a large number of intermediate and long term benefits and spin-offs, is the field of thermonuclear fusion. We shall treat this field as an example and examine the possible ramifications of a thermonuclear fusion program for Canada in the next section.

In concluding this section there are two points that we would like to make concerning pure and quasi-applied research. Applications of the results of this type of research are often not immediately apparent and may depend on a breakthrough in another field. Consequently, the economic benefits from this type of research may not occur within two or more decades. Since the time horizon of a corporate firm is seldom longer than 20 years, this implies that the proper sociological entities to fund the bulk of pure and quasi-applied research are governmental institutions which can plan for several decades into the future. On the other hand, applied research usually produces economic benefits within ten years such that corporate firms could logically be involved in funding such research. A corollary to this conclusion is that the overall funding for pure and quasi-applied research must be of a long-term nature and thus held relatively constant through the normal economic and political cycles. Too often in the past, the first casualty of an austerity program has been long-term scientific research. (Note that we refer to overall funding. The normal changes in priorities dictated by political, economic and technological realities will continue to result in curtailment or expansion of specific programs).

7. Potential Benefits of a Thermonuclear Fusion Programme

Thermonuclear fusion is the energy source of the sun and all the stars and is viewed as the driving force of the universe. The control of this energy source will be an important step in the evolution of man's capability of surviving in any environment. It will remove one of the main constraints which confines the human species to the planet earth.

I view Canadian involvement in fusion research as an entrance into the highly sophisticated technology of the future. There can be absolutely no doubt that the successful harnessing of fusion will have profound ramifications upon the technological developments and sociological habits of the whole world. There are certain to be a great many technological and scientific spin-offs and benefits which could perhaps be even more important than the prospect of virtually limitless quantities of energy.

Although plasma physics is the key scientific discipline associated with thermonuclear fusion, a great variety of scientific disciplines and technologies are associated with this field. For example, a laser-driven fusion programme would contribute to the development of technologies in the fields of lasers, short-time diagnostics, cryogenics, neutronics, tritium handling, etc. Magnetic confinement schemes are particularly associated with superconductivity, magnet technologies and direct conversion.

I firmly believe that a general pure or quasi-applied research programme can be designed such that in pursuit of the main goal, benefits accrue in adjoining fields in which Canada has an expressed interest. For example, a Canadian fusion programme can be designed to provide spin-offs in such fields as fission reactor technology, laser-isotope separation and magnetic levitation transportation systems.

- from Canadian Statistical Review, Jan. 1974; Pub. No.11-003 Monthly, Vol. 49, No. 1
- Section 3, Table 4.1, Page 38

where a breakdown of merchandise trade (excluding re-exports) is given in Appendix B,
where:

and where:

Comments:
Canada's 1972 merchandise trade surplus (including re-exports) of $1.6 Billion was more than offset by a deficit in service transactions of $2.5 Billion composed primarily of an interest and dividends deficit of $1.0 Billion.

CANADIAN MERCHANDISE TRADE, 1963 & 1972, EXCLUDING RE-EXPORTS (MILLION DOLLARS)

- from Canadian Statistical Review, Jan 1974, Pub. No.11-003 Monthly, Vol. 49, No. 1
- Section II, Tables 3 & 4, Pages, 98-101
and from Canadian Statistical Review, Historical Summary 1970, 11-505 Occasional
- Section II, Tables 3 & 4, Pages 127-130

¹ The totals include special transaction trade, which has been incorporated into the above table by inclusion of the last column market error. Note, however, that even with the inclusion of re-exports the totals in column one are slightly different from the merchandise trade figures in Appendix A.

² Motor vehicles and parts are shown separately from the rest of inedible end products.

Comments:
The figures indicate that Canada tends to finance its imports of inedible end products by exporting agricultural products (mostly wheat) and inedible crude and fabricated materials. On a relative basis, exports of inedible end products (excluding motor vehicles and parts) increased at a faster rate than imports. However, on a quantitative basis, such exports increased by $1,700 million while corresponding imports increased $4,513 million. Inedible fabricated materials demonstrate the opposite trend -- imports increasing at a faster rate than exports on a relative basis but slower than exports on a quantitative basis. Finally, the export of crude materials increased at a faster rate than imports both percentage-wise and quantitatively.

REAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 1961 AND 1972 (%)

- from Canadian Statistical Review, Jan 1974, Pub. No.11-003 Monthly, Vol. 49, No. 1
- Section 3, Tables 2.2 and 2.3, Pages 29-35

where:

and where:

where in turn,

where:

where the composition of nondurable and durable manufacturing is tabulated in small print below:

where:

NET CANADIAN EXPORT OF METAL, 1972 (MILLION DOLLARS)

- from Canadian Statistical Review, Jan 1974, Pub. No.11-003 Monthly, Vol. 49, No. 1
- Section II, Tables 3 and 4, Pages 98-101

¹ negative quantities denote imports
² Export of fabricated Al, Cu, Ni and other amounting to $1319 million are counterbalanced by imports of non-ferrous metals and metal fabricated basic products amounting to $655 million leaving a net export value of $664 million.

COMMENTS:
Ores, concentrates and scraps make up 70% of Canada's total net metal exports; whereas fabricated metals make up only 30% of these net exports, even though the value of the fabricated metal per unit mass of metal content is substantially higher than the value of ores or concentrates (see, for example, the case of aluminum in the table). Canada imports more fabricated iron than it exports; its imports of non-ferrous metals is also a substantial fraction of exports of these metals.

HISTORICAL RATIO OF REFINED METAL TO TOTAL METAL CONTENT OF EXPORTS (WEIGHT%)

- from Canadian Statistical Review, Historical Summary 1970, 11-505 Occasional
- Section 7, Table 6, Pages 95-96

COMMENTS:
In 1972 Canada's three most important metals by value were copper, nickel and zinc respectively. The table above shows that whereas in 1946, 75% of the exported copper was refined in Canada, this fraction has dropped to 59% in 1971. For zinc, this fraction decreased from 71% in 1946 to only 27% in 1971. (Statistics for nickel were not available). The statistics are similar for lead (Canada's fifth most important metal), the fraction of refined to total metal content having dropped from 94% in 1946 to 44% in 1971.