Peter
Pomerantsev and Edward Lucas are
the authors of a new paper that offers techniques and
counter-strategies to
combat Russian propaganda in Central and Eastern Europe. Launched this
week,
the paper is published in partnership with the Center for European
Policy
Analysis's (CEPA) 'Information Warfare Initiative'.
Russia’s
use of information as a
weapon is not new, but the sophistication and intensity are increasing.
Belatedly, the West has begun to realise that disinformation poses a
serious
threat to the United States and its European allies, primarily the
“frontline
states” -- Poland, the Baltic states, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and
Ukraine -- but
also to Western Europe and North America. Across the Western world, the
Kremlin
promotes conspiratorial discourse and uses disinformation to pollute
the
information space, increase polarisation and undermine democratic
debate.
Russia’s actions accelerate the declining confidence in international
alliances
and organisations, public institutions and mainstream media.
The Information Warfare Initiative at the Center for European Policy
Analysis
(CEPA) analyses the impact of Russian disinformation by drawing on
dozens of
case studies, both those directly commissioned by the authors and those
made available by
allied organizations. This paper synthesises those works and analyses
the tools
of Russian information warfare -- overt propaganda channels such as RT,
proxies disguised as
mainstream media outlets and social media -- as well as the political
forces,
civil society actors, businesses and public figures who use them. It
also looks
at several examples of Russian policies which have been enacted using
disinformation: Specific interventions in decision-making (such as
seeding fear
of Western institutions and alliances (Lithuania); fomenting
insurrection
(eastern Ukraine); general denigration of a country’s international
reputation
(Latvia); the development of native pro-Kremlin media (the Czech
Republic and
Estonia); and support for far-right and ultranationalist movements and
sentiments (Poland).
Peter Pomerantsev
and Edward Lucas
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This
report, Winning
the Information War: Techniques and Counter-Strategies in Russian
Propaganda,
is produced under the auspices of the Center
for European Policy Analysis’
(CEPA) Information Warfare Initiative.
Co-authored by CEPA Senior
Vice President Edward Lucas and Legatum Institute Senior Fellow Peter
Pomerantsev, it is part of an ongoing effort at CEPA to monitor,
collate,
analyse, rebut and expose Russian propaganda in the countries of
Central and
Eastern Europe (CEE). Previous publications in this series provided an
analytical foundation for evaluating the methods and aims of Russian
propaganda.
This report extends that research, examining how Russian propaganda is
being
employed across the CEE region, the perils it presents and actionable
counter-strategies for addressing it. In preparing this report, the
authors
conducted an extended assessment of the existing record of Russian,
English and
Baltic language literature on the subject of information warfare. They
solicited written inputs from, and conducted interviews with, members
of the
scholarly, academic and expert community who are investigating specific
dimensions of Russia’s “new” propaganda. Additionally, the authors
solicited
written and conceptual inputs through practitioner workshops with CEE
media
specialist, area experts and journalists—individuals who are on the
frontlines
of the Western response to Russian disinformation campaigns.
Special recognition is owed to the invaluable contributions of Anne
Applebaum (CEPA and Legatum
Institute), Paul
Copeland, Marina Denysenko (Ukrainian
Institute in London), Peter Doran (CEPA), Michal
Harmata (CEPA), Sanita
Jemberga (Baltic
Centre for Investigative Journalism), Andis
Kudors (Centre
for East European Policy Studies in Riga),Ben Nimmo (Institute
for Statecraft), Wiktor
Ostrowski (Krzyżowa
Academy), Alistair Shawcross (Legatum
Institute), Hanna
Shelest (UA: Ukraine Analytica), Ivana
Smoleňová(Prague
Security Studies Institute), Virgis
Valentinavičius (Mykolas
Romeris University),Magda Walter (UK-based
media
consultant) and Kazimierz Wóycicki (Krzyżowa
Academy). Finally, the authors would like to thank the invaluable
inputs and
insight provided by the monitors and media experts at CEPA’s
Information
Warfare Initiative, including Dalia Bankauskaite, Urve
Eslas, Martins
Kaprans and Andrzej
Poczobut.