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Ukraine at War | 05Aug2014 | DJP3tros, [2] Nalyvaichenko accusation
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/08/why-russia-shot-down-mh17-and-not-local.html

Why RUSSIA shot down MH17 and not 'local seperatists'

First of all: the war in East-Ukraine is a Russian operation with the help of some local recruits. See this blog. But apart from that, the BUK did not operate alone...
The SA-11 GADFLY BUK-system consists of four components:
  1. the command and control (C&C)
  2. the Snow Drift surveillance radar, can also operate as a C&C
  3. the launcher (Transport Erector Launcher And Radar, or TELAR). It also has some radar capabilities.
  4. the loader (Loader Launcher Vehicle: LLV). It transports, loads and can fire missiles, but has no radar.
You can see each of them here: [Image of BUK system]
Wikipedia about BUK.

C2 Snow Drift Radar
The Snow Drift Radar has an effective range of 85 kms. It can communicate with and control up to six TELs/LLVs and as such launch and direct the missiles to the target. The other units must be in range of max 40-50 kms, but at this range weather and geographical conditions or jamming may play a bigger role, so a more effective and reliable range would be 20-30 kms between the different units.

TELAR
The TELAR has the ability to launch independently from a C&C. It has a semi-active FIRE DOME radar. The radar sends a signal. The reflection of this signal is captured and based on the time, angle, etcetera, the height, range, speed and behavior of the plane is calculated. These are then send to the rocket. The rocket itself does not have radar.
The Fire Dome radar has a range of 32 kms, the same as the missile range.
The TELAR also has an electro-optical guidance system, which is only being used when the the radar is out of use because of jamming for instance.

LLV
The launcher has four missiles and since these missiles cannot be loaded into the system manually, a separate loader vehicle with a crane can both transport missiles, load them unto the launcher, or even shoot them when controlled by a C&C.

Every radar has a friend-or-foe recognition system (IFF).

Here you can see how the four components are working together:
[Image of BUK system]

Question: Does Russia have these units deployed along the border with Ukraine?
Answer: well of course!! They also used one two days earlier...

AN-26 brought down by BUK two days earlier
Two days prior Russia had been bringing down a Ukrainian AN-26 transport aircraft with a BUK missile. That was the first time they used a BUK in the war with Ukraine. In this blog I calculated where the BUK must have been located that fired that missile.
Drawn on a map it looks like this:
[Map 1 of Donbas area] in which
Dotted blue = border
Light blue = approximate front line at July 17th, 2014.
Explosion icon = crash site AN-26
Red circle = 32 km missile range

Another thing is that we know from all kinds of sources that Russia has units all along the border with Ukraine and is even ATTACKING Ukraine across the border.
All red dots on this map are CONFIRMED locations of Russian units and/or attacks:
[Map 2 of Donbas area]

Did we spot and locate any of the BUK units alongside the border? No, but we know that they are there, because:
  1. the AN-26 was shot down with a BUK earlier. 
  2. this soldier wanted to be funny and posted a photo of himself with some BUK units on the background, pretending it was the BUK that shot down MH17:
[Image of soldier with BUK units in background]
  1. A couple of days later they shot down two SU-25 with BUK-missiles from Russisan territory (see below)
What would be good locations to position BUKs along the border?
You only need three more TELARs to cover ALL of the border where fighting is going on, like this:
[Map 3 of Donbas area]

The most important location is this one:
[Map 4 of Donbas area]

Because it covers the route of Ukrainian aircrafts to the units at the border. And Russia was and still is trying to cut off these Ukrainian units at that particular location.
This is the best spot to put a radar unit:
[Map 5 of Donbas area] in which
Yellow area = 85 kilometer operational range of Snow Drift Radar.

One radar unit at this location covers almost ALL the Russian occupied area. Except for the Western most part. This is where they had positioned a Strela-10 anti-air unit with 5 km range:
[Map 6 of Donbas area]
[W.Z. 2014.08.10 -- The small red circle on Map 6 to the northwest of Donetsk encompasses another Pervomais'ke -- the actual location from where the Russian military had originally intended to launch a BUK missile to shoot down Russian Aeroflot AFL2074. (See Map 10 and addendum below).]

The BUK that brought down MH17
In the night and morning of July 16th to 17th, 2014, Russia drove one BUK-M1 all the way into Ukraine like this yellow route (see this blog):
[Map 7 of Donbas area]

Wow!! What a detour! We know from the leaked telephone calls that they TRIED to bring in TWO, but only one made it. So it was a VERY risky operation.
We also know from these phone calls that the BUK came WITH A CREW.

And what do they do? They POSITION this unit WITHIN the operational communication range of a radar unit across the Russian border:
[Map 8 of Donbas area]

It means the BUK COULD easily connect with a radar unit there. Then the next question is: why should it NOT connect?

Another question is: WHY would they drive the BUK all the way WITHIN operational range of a radar unit, while they could easily have a BUK on Russian territory with approximately the SAME effective coverage of Ukrainian area along the border?
If the BUK was intended for 'offline' use, why drive it within range? Why not position it in Donetsk, so there is a lot more area to cover with air-defense? Like this:
[Map 9 of Donbas area]

The answer is simple: OF COURSE they wanted to connect with the radar and command and control located in Russia...

Another thing
We know that in the week after MH17 Russia shot down two SU-25 near Snizhne with a BUK located in Russia approximately on that exact forward position:
[Kyiv Post on Twitter]

Or read this article.
And in this video the Russian terrorists search for the pilots:
[youtube video]

So it is clear the BUK sytem is on Russian soil in that area.


Then we have to ask: why would they put a BUK within operational range of a radar unit on Russian soil, while there is little to no strategic advantage to having a BUK next to the radar on Russian soil?

The logical answer is: to OBSCURE the fact that it's RUSSIA being at war with Ukraine and to PRETEND that it is ‘the rebels’ or ‘the separatists’. They have been sending messages out of capturing a Ukrainian BUK for days and weeks, just so they could bring one BUK in from Russia without alarming the world too much. They have been doing this with EVERYTHING they brought in: ALL has been ‘captured’, so they say. It’s a disguise.

So this BUK would be a ‘captured separatists BUK’, but it could be put in range with the C&C and connect with it for effective operation.


Did the C&C know it was a civilian plane?
Answer: yes they did. They have been located there for weeks already, monitoring the skies. Civilian airplanes had been crossing over daily. It was safe, because they fly at an altitude where military planes do not operate.
Also they can check the IFF of airplanes and as such identify a plane.


If so: did they deliberately shoot down a civilian airplane?
Answer: yes, they must have known.

Here is the map again, now with path and direction of MH17 and its crash site:
[Map 10 of Donbas area]
BUK20140807MH17.jpg
Map 12 of Donbas area

The eye-icon might be the location of the spotter on a high building in Horlivka who called that he had seen a plane. It is a common practice to put such spotters at the end of the radar range, to get early warnings/confirmations.


But why would the Russians want to bring down a civilian plane?

Why do these people kill and torture people? Why do they execute people who fight for them when they get caught looting? Why do they intentionally target residential areas with the goal to cause civilian casualties?

For two reasons: to be able to get awful dramatic footage for Russian TV and next to be able to blame Ukraine for it.
Sometimes they fail to hide that THEY are actually doing it. In that case, the message is: get out of our way, move aside, don’t bother us, or we will kill you. They don’t want civilians to harass them or tell the Ukrainiana army their positions and things like that. So they threaten and they kill to make people obedient and not bother them.


But how does that explain them shooting down an airliner?
They want a clear sky. They want to be able to shoot down everything that flies in the sky. AND they want to do this from Russian territory, so their units cannot be counterattacked. Of course they cannot shoot down an airliner from Russian territory. So they drove one into Ukraine, shot it down, drove it back. The INTENTION was to blame Ukraine for it as they do with everything. And even when that would fail, it would be very hard or impossible to prove the connection with the C&C across the border.


Was it a mistake that they shot MH17 down?
Did it change anything for them? Did they show respect for the innocent dead? Did they want to have a ceasefire for three days so the dead could be removed safely? Or for the responsible ‘rebels’ to be brought to justice?
No, they did everything to obscure, to remove evidence, to slow down, to remove photos and videos from cellphones from victims, etcetera, in order to make it as difficult as possible to find out the truth.
They don't care about these (civilian) deaths. It is as simple as that.

They got away with ALL the other incidents they caused. It looks like they get away with this one too...


Now they have the clear sky they want. NOW they can shoot down everything that flies by without thinking and from safe RUSSIAN territory.

Summary and conclusion
The TELAR/BUK that shot down MH17 was deliberately driven into Ukraine to a location within range of a Command and Control Radar unit on Russian territory.
There was hardly any strategical gain compared to having a BUK on Russian territory.
The goal to have such a complicated and dangerous operation of bringing the BUK into Ukraine was to OBSCURE the fact that it would be operated by Russians.
The BUK came WITH a crew.
The C&C in Russia had been monitoring the skies for weeks already, if not for months. They have seen civilian planes all the time.
They got an early warning by a spotter.
They knew MH17 was a civilian plane.
Still they gave the order to bring it down.

It does not mean EVERYBODY knew this. In fact NOBODY local knew about it. The locals ALL thought and were told it was a AN-26, until they found out. Only the few people in the C&C and maybe the crew in the TELAR itself knew about it. These people operate in strict discipline and doctrine. They had orders and ask no questions.


In Russian language other people have come to the same conclusion too:

aillarionov.livejournal.com/718415.html 
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/718324.html  and
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/719077.html

Факты и оценочные суждения от юзера albert_denver и М.Солонина



[2] Nalyvaichenko accusation
[W.Z. 2014.08.10 -- In a surprising turn of events, in a press conference on 07Aug2014 SBU head, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, stated that the SBU has evidence that the Russian military had originally planned to shoot down Russian Aeroflot AFL2074 on a flight from Moscow to Turkey, such as to create a CASSUS BELLI to invade Ukraine. Rather than sending the BUK system from Donetsk to the village of Pervomais'ke about 2 km west-northwest of the Donetsk airport , the local Russian terrorist-separatists sent the BUK system to a village of the same name some 200 km to the east just south of Snizhne from where the BUK missile brought down Malaysian MH17. This is explained in the "Shuster Live" show of 08Aug2014 at
http://24tv.ua/home/showSingleNews.do?teroristi_planuvali_terakt_proti_laynera_aeroflotu__sbu&objectId=472926  ]



Yaroslav Kokodyniak has posted a concise analyis with multiple links at

I am beginning to think that the SBU's theory of a False Flag Operation gone wrong is correct. The Plan was to shoot down the Aeroflot airliner AFL2074 flying from Moscow, Russia to Larnaca, Cyprus that got thwarted by shooting down Malaysian Airlines MH17 instead because of a screwup of village names -- turns out there are 3 villages with almost the same name (Pervomaisk) in Donetsk Oblast :) too much inbreeding I guess :O (1st is close to Snizhne, Donetsk Oblast [Name: Pervomais'ke] where the BUK ended up, 2nd is NW of Stakhanov, Luhansk Oblast [Pervomais'k], and 3rd is west of Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast [Name: Pervomais'ke])

LOCATION #1
Pervomais'ke, Donest Oblast
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&hl=en&ll=47.992794,38.784399&spn=0.050719,0.132093&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=60.417788,135.263672&oq=donetsk&t=h&hnear=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&z=14

LOCATION #2
Pervomais'k, Luhansk Oblast
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&hl=en&ll=48.626442,38.515148&spn=0.100187,0.264187&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=60.417788,135.263672&oq=donetsk&t=h&hnear=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&z=13

LOCATION #3
Pervomais'ke, Donetsk Oblast
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&hl=en&ll=48.085075,37.613626&spn=0.025314,0.066047&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=60.417788,135.263672&oq=donetsk&t=h&hnear=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&z=15

Location #3 was the intended launch zone because it was only 2 km WNW of Donetsk airport and 5 km WSW of Avdiivka where there is a Ukrainian air defence unit that had BUK missiles in it's inventory -- thus the patsy. It also meant the plane would have crashed in Ukrainian controlled territory and Ukraine would have been blamed for the act.

Location #1 was where the BUK missile launcher was finally sent to, to shoot down the airliner.

I was going back thru the ton of e-mails and articles and Tymchuk was worried about a massive infiltration by Russian special forces circa July 15th (they are normally sent in just prior to an invasion) but somehow the invasion never materialized -- is it possible because they shot down the wrong plane and deflated their tires/invasion plan?

Check out this detailed article that tries to put all the pieces together and analyze it:

Ukrainian SBU comes with conspiracy theory about MH17?
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/08/ukrainian-sbu-comes-with-conspiracy.html
Thursday, August 7, 2014

The conclusions the blog comes to is as follows:

Temporary conclusion
This new 'conspiracy theory' of Ukraines SBU is charming and it DOES make a lot of sense to me. It's hard to proof something that did not actually happen, but 'should have happened'. But the best way to do that, is to try to disproof it. If there is any hard data incompatible with this theory, it fails. But if it is impossible to proof that it is wrong, it may very well be true!!!

There is an interesting SBU video located here (only in Ukrainian so far)

Те€о€и�‚и ‚а в–й�Œков– найман†– †ин–‡но планƒвали ‚е€ак‚ п€о‚и †ив–лŒного л–‚ака �е€о„ло‚ƒ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntHj124vnIA
Published on Aug 7, 2014

Also Tymchuk weighed in on this issue in Russian

Те€€о€и�‚‹ плани€овали �би‚Œ �амоле‚ ��€о„ло‚а вме�‚о ‘оинга, ‡‚об‹ �п€ово†и€ова‚Œ ввод вой�к  Ф €” С‘У (дополнено)
http://inforesist.org/terroristy-planirovali-sbit-samolet-aeroflota-vmesto-boinga-chtoby-sprovocirovat-vvedenie-vojsk-rf-sbu/
15:28 07.08.2014

and then in English

USS: Terrorists planned to down an Aeroflot plane instead of Boeing to provoke Russian invasion
http://en.inforesist.org/uss-terrorists-planned-to-down-an-aeroflot-plane-instead-of-boeing-to-provoke-russian-invasion/
21:02 07.08.2014

and of course Kyiv Post posted an article on this:

Nalyvaychenko says separatists intended to shoot down Russian passenger plane
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/nalyvaychenko-said-that-separatists-intended-to-shoot-down-russian-passenger-plane-359765.html
Aug. 7, 2014, 7:56 p.m. | Ukraine -- by Maryna Lysytsia

The same guys that came up with the analysis in the first link came up with this analysis:

Why RUSSIA shot down MH17 and not 'local seperatists'
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/08/why-russia-shot-down-mh17-and-not-local.html
Tuesday, August 5, 2014

and these were the same people that originally tracked down the launch site of the BUK Missile

Launch location detected of missile that brought down MH17
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/07/launch-location-detected-of-missile.html
Monday, July 21, 2014

and confirmed with a journalist on the ground

EXACT location pinpointed of MH17 missile launch site
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/07/exact-location-pinpointed-of-mh17.html
Wednesday, July 23, 2014

here are some other articles on this issue when it first broke

Latest Ukrainian Intelligence News
http://20committee.com/2014/08/07/latest-ukrainian-intelligence-news/
August 7, 2014

and

 о�–� планƒвала зби‚и л–‚ак "�е€о„ло‚ƒ" дл� вип€авданн� в‚о€гненн� в Ук€а—нƒ - С‘У
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/08/7/7034198/
Че‚ве€, 07 �е€пн� 2014, 15:33

InfoUkes Inc. Gerald William Kokodyniak
Suite 185, 3044 Bloor Street West Webmaster InfoUkes Inc.
Etobicoke, Ontario yaroslav@infoukes.com
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