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Ukraine at War | 05Aug2014 | DJP3tros, [2] Nalyvaichenko accusation
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/08/why-russia-shot-down-mh17-and-not-local.html
Why
RUSSIA shot down MH17 and not 'local seperatists'
First
of all: the war in East-Ukraine is a Russian operation with the help of
some local recruits. See
this blog. But apart from that, the BUK did not operate
alone...
The SA-11 GADFLY BUK-system consists of four components:
- the command and control (C&C)
- the Snow Drift surveillance radar, can also operate as a
C&C
- the launcher (Transport Erector Launcher And Radar, or
TELAR). It also has some radar capabilities.
- the loader (Loader Launcher Vehicle: LLV). It transports,
loads and can fire missiles, but has no radar.
You can see each of them here:
[Image of BUK system]
Wikipedia about BUK.
C2 Snow Drift Radar
The Snow Drift Radar has an effective range of 85 kms. It can
communicate with and control up to six TELs/LLVs and as such launch and
direct the missiles to the target. The other units must be in range of
max 40-50 kms, but at this range weather and geographical conditions or
jamming may play a bigger role, so a more effective and reliable range
would be 20-30 kms between the different units.
TELAR
The TELAR has the ability to launch independently from a C&C.
It has a semi-active FIRE DOME radar. The radar sends a signal. The
reflection of this signal is captured and based on the time, angle,
etcetera, the height, range, speed and behavior of the plane is
calculated. These are then send to the rocket. The rocket itself does
not have radar.
The Fire Dome radar has a range of 32 kms, the same as the missile
range.
The TELAR also has an electro-optical guidance system, which is only
being used when the the radar is out of use because of jamming for
instance.
LLV
The launcher has four missiles and since these missiles cannot be
loaded into the system manually, a separate loader vehicle with a crane
can both transport missiles, load them unto the launcher, or even shoot
them when controlled by a C&C.
Every radar has a friend-or-foe recognition system (IFF).
Here you can see how the four components are working together:
[Image of BUK system]
Question: Does Russia have these units deployed along the
border with Ukraine?
Answer: well of course!! They also used one two days earlier...
AN-26 brought down by BUK two days earlier
Two days prior Russia had been bringing down a Ukrainian AN-26
transport aircraft with a BUK missile. That was the first time they
used a BUK in the war with Ukraine. In this
blog I calculated where the BUK must have been located that
fired that missile.
Drawn on a map it looks like this:
[Map 1 of Donbas area]
in which
Dotted blue = border
Light blue = approximate front line at July 17th, 2014.
Explosion icon = crash site AN-26
Red circle = 32 km missile range
Another thing is that we know from all kinds of sources that Russia has
units all along the border with Ukraine and is even ATTACKING Ukraine
across the border.
All red dots on this map are CONFIRMED locations of Russian units
and/or attacks:
[Map 2 of Donbas area]
Did we spot and locate any of the BUK units alongside the border?
No, but we know that they are there, because:
- the AN-26 was shot down with a BUK earlier.
- this soldier wanted to be funny and posted a photo of
himself with some BUK units on the background, pretending it was the
BUK that shot down MH17:
[Image of soldier with BUK units
in background]
- A couple of days later they shot down two
SU-25 with BUK-missiles from Russisan territory (see below)
What would be good locations to position BUKs along the border?
You only need three more TELARs to cover ALL of the border where
fighting is going on, like this:
[Map 3 of Donbas area]
The most important location is this one:
[Map 4 of Donbas area]
Because it covers the route of Ukrainian aircrafts to the units at the
border. And Russia was and still is trying to cut off these Ukrainian
units at that particular location.
This is the best spot to put a radar unit:
[Map 5 of Donbas area]
in which
Yellow area = 85 kilometer operational range of Snow Drift Radar.
One radar unit at this location covers almost ALL the Russian occupied
area. Except for the Western most part. This is where they had
positioned a Strela-10 anti-air unit with 5 km range:
[Map 6 of Donbas area]
[W.Z.
2014.08.10 -- The small red circle on Map 6 to the northwest of Donetsk
encompasses another Pervomais'ke -- the actual location from where the
Russian military had originally intended to launch a BUK missile to
shoot down Russian Aeroflot AFL2074. (See Map 10 and addendum below).]
The BUK that brought down MH17
In the night and morning of July 16th to 17th, 2014, Russia drove one
BUK-M1 all the way into Ukraine like this yellow route (see
this blog):
[Map 7 of Donbas area]
Wow!! What a detour! We know from the
leaked telephone calls that they TRIED to bring in TWO, but
only one made it. So it was a VERY risky operation.
We also know from these phone calls that the BUK came WITH A CREW.
And what do they do? They POSITION this unit WITHIN the operational
communication range of a radar unit across the Russian border:
[Map 8 of Donbas area]
It means the BUK COULD easily connect with a radar unit there. Then the
next question is: why should it NOT connect?
Another question is: WHY would they drive the BUK all the way WITHIN
operational range of a radar unit, while they could easily have a BUK
on Russian territory with approximately the SAME effective coverage of
Ukrainian area along the border?
If the BUK was intended for 'offline' use, why drive it within range?
Why not position it in Donetsk, so there is a lot more area to cover
with air-defense? Like this:
[Map 9 of Donbas area]
The answer is simple: OF COURSE they wanted to connect with the radar
and command and control located in Russia...
Another thing
We know that in the week after MH17 Russia shot down two SU-25 near
Snizhne with a BUK located in Russia approximately on that exact
forward position:
[Kyiv
Post on Twitter]
Or read this article.
And in this video the Russian terrorists search for the pilots:
[youtube
video]
So it is clear the BUK sytem is on Russian soil in that area.
Then we have to ask: why would they put a BUK within operational range
of a radar unit on Russian soil, while there is little to no strategic
advantage to having a BUK next to the radar on Russian soil?
The logical answer is: to OBSCURE the fact that it's RUSSIA being at
war with Ukraine and to PRETEND that it is ‘the rebels’ or ‘the
separatists’. They have been sending messages out of capturing a
Ukrainian BUK for days and weeks, just so they could bring one BUK in
from Russia without alarming the world too much. They have been doing
this with EVERYTHING they brought in: ALL has been ‘captured’, so they
say. It’s a disguise.
So this BUK would be a ‘captured separatists BUK’, but it could be put
in range with the C&C and connect with it for effective
operation.
Did the C&C know it was a civilian plane?
Answer: yes they did. They have been located there for weeks already,
monitoring the skies. Civilian airplanes had been crossing over daily.
It was safe, because they fly at an altitude where military planes do
not operate.
Also they can check the IFF of airplanes and as such identify a plane.
If so: did they deliberately shoot down a civilian airplane?
Answer: yes, they must have known.
Here is the map again, now with path and direction of MH17 and its
crash site:
[Map 10 of Donbas area]
BUK20140807MH17.jpg
The eye-icon might be the location of the spotter on a high building in
Horlivka who called that he had seen a plane. It is a common practice
to put such spotters at the end of the radar range, to get early
warnings/confirmations.
But why would the Russians want to bring down a civilian plane?
Why do these people kill and torture people? Why do they execute people
who fight for them when they get caught looting? Why do they
intentionally target residential areas with the goal to cause civilian
casualties?
For two reasons: to be able to get awful dramatic footage for Russian
TV and next to be able to blame Ukraine for it.
Sometimes they fail to hide that THEY are actually doing it. In that
case, the message is: get out of our way, move aside, don’t bother us,
or we will kill you. They don’t want civilians to harass them or tell
the Ukrainiana army their positions and things like that. So they
threaten and they kill to make people obedient and not bother them.
But how does that explain them shooting down an airliner?
They want a clear sky. They want to be able to shoot down everything
that flies in the sky. AND they want to do this from Russian territory,
so their units cannot be counterattacked. Of course they cannot shoot
down an airliner from Russian territory. So they drove one into
Ukraine, shot it down, drove it back. The INTENTION was to blame
Ukraine for it as they do with everything. And even when that would
fail, it would be very hard or impossible to prove the connection with
the C&C across the border.
Was it a mistake that they shot MH17 down?
Did it change anything for them? Did they show respect for the innocent
dead? Did they want to have a ceasefire for three days so the dead
could be removed safely? Or for the responsible ‘rebels’ to be brought
to justice?
No, they did everything to obscure, to remove evidence, to slow down,
to remove photos and videos from cellphones from victims, etcetera, in
order to make it as difficult as possible to find out the truth.
They don't care about these (civilian) deaths. It is as simple as that.
They got away with ALL the other incidents they caused. It looks like
they get away with this one too...
Now they have the clear sky they want. NOW they can shoot down
everything that flies by without thinking and from safe RUSSIAN
territory.
Summary and conclusion
The TELAR/BUK that shot down MH17 was deliberately driven into Ukraine
to a location within range of a Command and Control Radar unit on
Russian territory.
There was hardly any strategical gain compared to having a BUK on
Russian territory.
The goal to have such a complicated and dangerous operation of bringing
the BUK into Ukraine was to OBSCURE the fact that it would be operated
by Russians.
The BUK came WITH a crew.
The C&C in Russia had been monitoring the skies for weeks
already, if not for months. They have seen civilian planes all the time.
They got an early warning by a spotter.
They knew MH17 was a civilian plane.
Still they gave the order to bring it down.
It does not mean EVERYBODY knew this. In fact NOBODY local knew about
it. The locals ALL thought and were told it was a AN-26, until they
found out. Only the few people in the C&C and maybe the crew in
the TELAR itself knew about it. These people operate in strict
discipline and doctrine. They had orders and ask no questions.
In Russian language other people have come to the same conclusion too:
aillarionov.livejournal.com/718415.html
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/718324.html
and
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/719077.html
[2] Nalyvaichenko accusation
[W.Z.
2014.08.10 --
In a surprising turn of events, in a press conference on
07Aug2014 SBU head, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, stated that the SBU has
evidence that the Russian military had originally planned to shoot down
Russian Aeroflot AFL2074 on a flight from Moscow to Turkey, such as to
create a CASSUS BELLI to invade Ukraine. Rather than sending the BUK
system from Donetsk to the village of Pervomais'ke about 2 km
west-northwest of the Donetsk airport , the local Russian
terrorist-separatists sent the BUK system to a village of the same name
some 200 km to the east just south of Snizhne from where the BUK
missile brought down Malaysian MH17. This is explained in the "Shuster
Live" show of 08Aug2014 at
http://24tv.ua/home/showSingleNews.do?teroristi_planuvali_terakt_proti_laynera_aeroflotu__sbu&objectId=472926
]
Yaroslav Kokodyniak has posted a concise analyis with multiple links at
I am beginning to think that the SBU's theory of a False Flag
Operation gone wrong is correct. The Plan was to shoot down the
Aeroflot airliner AFL2074 flying from Moscow, Russia to Larnaca, Cyprus
that got thwarted by shooting down Malaysian Airlines MH17 instead
because of a screwup of village names -- turns out there are 3 villages
with almost the same name (Pervomaisk) in Donetsk Oblast :) too much
inbreeding I guess :O (1st is close to Snizhne, Donetsk Oblast [Name:
Pervomais'ke] where the BUK ended up, 2nd is NW of Stakhanov, Luhansk
Oblast [Pervomais'k], and 3rd is west of Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast [Name:
Pervomais'ke])
LOCATION #1
Pervomais'ke, Donest Oblast
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&hl=en&ll=47.992794,38.784399&spn=0.050719,0.132093&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=60.417788,135.263672&oq=donetsk&t=h&hnear=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&z=14
LOCATION #2
Pervomais'k, Luhansk Oblast
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&hl=en&ll=48.626442,38.515148&spn=0.100187,0.264187&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=60.417788,135.263672&oq=donetsk&t=h&hnear=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&z=13
LOCATION #3
Pervomais'ke, Donetsk Oblast
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&hl=en&ll=48.085075,37.613626&spn=0.025314,0.066047&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=60.417788,135.263672&oq=donetsk&t=h&hnear=Donetsk,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine&z=15
Location #3 was the intended launch zone because it was only 2
km WNW of Donetsk airport and 5 km WSW of Avdiivka where there is a
Ukrainian air defence unit that had BUK missiles in it's inventory --
thus the patsy. It also meant the plane would have crashed in Ukrainian
controlled territory and Ukraine would have been blamed for the act.
Location #1 was where the BUK missile launcher was finally
sent to, to shoot down the airliner.
I was going back thru the ton of e-mails and articles and
Tymchuk was worried about a massive infiltration by Russian special
forces circa July 15th (they are normally sent in just prior to an
invasion) but somehow the invasion never materialized -- is it possible
because they shot down the wrong plane and deflated their
tires/invasion plan?
Check out this detailed article that tries to put all the
pieces together and analyze it:
Ukrainian SBU comes with conspiracy theory about MH17?
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/08/ukrainian-sbu-comes-with-conspiracy.html
Thursday, August 7, 2014
The conclusions the blog comes to is as follows:
Temporary conclusion
This new 'conspiracy theory' of Ukraines SBU is charming and it DOES
make a lot of sense to me. It's hard to proof something that did not
actually happen, but 'should have happened'. But the best way to do
that, is to try to disproof it. If there is any hard data incompatible
with this theory, it fails. But if it is impossible to proof that it is
wrong, it may very well be true!!!
There is an interesting SBU video located here (only in
Ukrainian so far)
Терори�ти та вій�ькові найманці
цинічно планували теракт проти
цивільного літака �ерофлоту
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntHj124vnIA
Published on Aug 7, 2014
Also Tymchuk weighed in on this issue in Russian
Террори�ты планировали �бить
�амолет ��рофлота вме�то Боинга, чтобы
�провоцировать ввод вой�к РФ —
СБУ (дополнено)
http://inforesist.org/terroristy-planirovali-sbit-samolet-aeroflota-vmesto-boinga-chtoby-sprovocirovat-vvedenie-vojsk-rf-sbu/
15:28 07.08.2014
and then in English
USS: Terrorists planned to down an Aeroflot plane instead of
Boeing to provoke Russian invasion
http://en.inforesist.org/uss-terrorists-planned-to-down-an-aeroflot-plane-instead-of-boeing-to-provoke-russian-invasion/
21:02 07.08.2014
and of course Kyiv Post posted an article on this:
Nalyvaychenko says separatists intended to shoot down Russian
passenger plane
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/nalyvaychenko-said-that-separatists-intended-to-shoot-down-russian-passenger-plane-359765.html
Aug. 7, 2014, 7:56 p.m. | Ukraine -- by Maryna Lysytsia
The same guys that came up with the analysis in the first link
came up with this analysis:
Why RUSSIA shot down MH17 and not 'local seperatists'
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/08/why-russia-shot-down-mh17-and-not-local.html
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
and these were the same people that originally tracked down
the launch site of the BUK Missile
Launch location detected of missile that brought down MH17
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/07/launch-location-detected-of-missile.html
Monday, July 21, 2014
and confirmed with a journalist on the ground
EXACT location pinpointed of MH17 missile launch site
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/07/exact-location-pinpointed-of-mh17.html
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
here are some other articles on this issue when it first broke
Latest Ukrainian Intelligence News
http://20committee.com/2014/08/07/latest-ukrainian-intelligence-news/
August 7, 2014
and
Ро�і� планувала збити літак
"�ерофлоту" дл� виправданн� вторгненн�
в Україну - СБУ
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/08/7/7034198/
Четвер, 07 �ерпн� 2014, 15:33
InfoUkes Inc. Gerald William Kokodyniak
Suite 185, 3044 Bloor Street West Webmaster InfoUkes Inc.
Etobicoke, Ontario [email protected]
Canada M8X 2Y8 http://www.infoukes.com/